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State of the Art: A Family-Related Foresight Approach

    Paolo di Giulio, Thomas Fent, Dimiter Philipov, Jana Vobecká, Maria Winkler-Dworak

VID Working Papers, pp. 1-28, 2021/11/30

doi: 10.1553/0x003d06d8


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doi:10.1553/0x003d06d8

Abstract

This state-of-the-art report discusses the substantive and methodological backgroundfor the construction and application of a family-related foresight method. Thesubstantive part includes a brief presentation of two preceding family-orientedforesight methods: one run by the OECD in 2012 (producing two scenarios) and theother by the FamilyPlatform (producing four scenarios), the forerunners of theFamiliesAndSocieties project. The methodological background focuses onmicrosimulation and agent-based models, two quantitative models that will serve asnew tools for foresight. Their application is considered in a systematic frameworkalong with other standard foresight tools such as workshops and focus groups.

Keywords: Family foresight, microsimulation, agent-based models, online questionnaire