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The Future of International Migration: Developing Expert-Based Assumptions for Global Population Projections

    Nikola Sander, Guy J. Abel, Fernando Riosmena, Ayla Bonfiglio, Graeme Hugo, Lori Hunter, Siew-Ean Khoo, Douglas Massey, Philip Rees

VID Working Papers, pp. 1-57, 2021/11/30

doi: 10.1553/0x003d06da


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doi:10.1553/0x003d06da

Abstract

This paper explores alternative future trajectories of international migration by applying amultiregional flow model to a new set of estimates of global bilateral migration flowsdeveloped by the second author. The innovations in population projections presented hereare threefold: first, the projections are based on new flow estimates that are comparable atthe world level rather than commonly used net migration measures; second, a set ofalternative expert-based what-if scenarios is developed and a continuation of current trendsuntil the year 2060 as the medium variant is assumed rather than assuming a convergenceto zero net migration; third projections are carried out using directional migrationprobabilities in a multiregional cohort-component framework, where populations of allcountries are projected simultaneously. A discussion of the baseline data, assumptions andmodel specifications is followed by a summary of key result on projected numbers offuture migrants.

Keywords: International migration, population projections, multiregional demography, flow estimates