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Now or Later? Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria and Hungary and the Impact of Anomie and Social Capital

    Dimiter Philipov, Zsolt Spéder, Francesco C. Billari

VID Working Papers, pp. 1-28, 2021/12/06

doi: 10.1553/0x003d0a84


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doi:10.1553/0x003d0a84

Abstract

This paper discusses the construction of fertility intentions in contemporary Bulgaria andHungary. It presents empirical analyses of four types of fertility intentions: whether to have ornot to have a first or a second child and if yes, whether to have this child within the next twoyears or later. Both countries have recently experienced drastic societal transformations. Basedon comparative survey data for women we find that that explanatory factors of fertilityintentions differ significantly by order of an intended birth and its timing. We attributeparticular emphasis to social anomie and social capital as important factors in shaping fertilityintentions and in timing a desired birth. Moreover, economic factors are importantdeterminants in Bulgaria, while ideational and demographic factors are significant in bothcountries. The findings suggest the necessity of explicitly taking into account birth order andthe timing of a desired birth in large-scale demographic surveys and the importance of anomieand social capital in recent fertility choices in Central and Eastern Europe.

Keywords: Fertility intentions, fertility in Bulgaria, fertility in Hungary, social capital, social anomie